The aim of this study is to assess the level of food security of the Russian regions on the example of the Rostov region. It is suggested to adapt the method for determination of regional national food security, with the calculation of critical and optimistic levels, which allows evaluating the present status of the food supply of the inhabitants of the Rostov region. Calculated integral indices of consumption indicate a lack of food security over the potatoes, milk, fruits and berries. It should be noted that there is a slight deviation from the norm of the coefficient of fat and carbohydrates – 0.1. Using trend analysis, values of food security were calculated in the medium term until 2020. The matrix of inter-regional import and export of agricultural products and food by the example of meat composition and nomenclature corresponding to regional forecasting balances of agricultural and food resources in all regions of the Russian Federation is composed. Based on forecasts decline in the production of meat products as a result of the influence of various factors is considered as the interconnected chain of emerging imbalances in the forecast balances of food resources at the regional and federal levels. By 2020, in the Rostov region, grain production is expected to increase by 7.5 % compared with the average for 2000-2013, potato – by 14 %, vegetables – by 78 %, meat – by 72 %, milk – 29 %, and eggs – by 65 %. Thus, the region will be on self-sufficiency, with the possibility for individual products to export to the inter-regional and international market. In the short term the Rostov region should be reoriented to correct an imbalance that occurs not through the importation of foreign products, but by inter-regional exchange with neighboring entities.
Keywords: food security, food provision, food security forecasting, forecast balances of food resources, food imbalance.
