Annotation

Purpose: to identify trends, simulate scenarios and develop strategic proposals for adapting geoirrigation systems in Western Siberia to climate change. 

Materials and methods. The study is based on scenario planning and a system approach using intuitive logic, foresight, statistical and content analysis, principal components, geometric intervals, correlation analysis, questionnaires, and mapping. The calculation database is based on data from scientific institutions of the Russian Federation, the Federal State Statistics Service, the Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring of the Russian Federation, the Federal Service for State Registration, Cadastre, and Cartography of the Russian Federation, the Department of Land Reclamation of the Ministry of Agriculture of Russia, and a survey of agricultural enterprise managers. 

Results. Modeling within the framework of the baseline and alternative climate forecasts showed a significant increase in the adaptive potential of geoirrigation systems for all districts located in the arid natural and climatic conditions of Western Siberia (by 0.028–0.055 conventional units); significant changes are not expected for more humid natural and climatic zones (0.009 conventional units or less). Four types of the most probable scenarios for adaptation to observed and projected climate changes were identified: progressive, stagnant, regressive-stagnation, and regressive. For each type, strategic proposals and measures for sustainable intensification of land irrigation were developed. Among the 88 municipal districts studied, only 27 have a high probability of developing geoirrigation systems within the framework of the progressive scenario. 

Conclusions. The study's results may be useful to regional ministries of agriculture and departments of land reclamation and agricultural water supply in the Russian Federation when developing long-term planning strategies to prepare agricultural sectors for global climate change.

doi: 10.31774/2712-9357-2026-16-1-61-79

For quoting

Orlova I. V. Strategic directions for adapting geoirrigation systems to climate change in Western Siberia. Land Reclamation and Hydraulic Engineering. 2026;16(1):61–79. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31774/2712-9357-2026-16-1-61-79.

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