Purpose: to determine trends in the dynamics of quantitative distribution of hydraulic structures (HS) classified as state property using regression analysis (RA) in accordance with a number of indicators contained in the HS data for maintaining the state water register and state monitoring of water bodies.
Materials and methods. The RA was conducted using information on federal HS. The data for analysis were selected using a special program for database analysis and management. The indicators to be considered included information on the technical condition of HS inspected by supervisory authorities, the need to carry out certain activities based on monitoring data from operating organizations, and wear and tear information.
Results and discussion. The study allowed to establish a number of relationships describing the dynamics of the above indicators. Thus, the obtained equations and RA results show that if the trends of recent years are maintained, the annual increase in the number of hydraulic structures with a marginal (emergency) technical condition will be 1.5 %, while the number of hydraulic structures with a standard technical condition will decrease by about 2 %. Analysis of the dynamics of quantitative indicators of the technical condition of hydraulic structures based on the monitoring data of operating organizations indicates a growing need for measures to bring hydraulic structures to a standard condition, including major and current repairs of hydraulic structures. The number of hydraulic structures requiring decommissioning is increasing, and the number of hydraulic structures under construction is small. Analysis by wear classes indicates an increasing number of hydraulic structures with marginal wear, estimated at about 200 hydraulic structures per year.
Conclusions. If the trends of 2020–2023 are maintained, the regression coefficients can be considered as forecast values indicating a deterioration in the situation in the country's land reclamation complex.
doi: 10.31774/2712-9357-2025-15-1-246-260
reclamation complex, hydraulic structures, regression analysis, technical condition, dynamics
Voyevodina L. A. Trends in the dynamics of quantitative distribution of reclamation hydraulic structures of federal ownership. Land Reclamation and Hydraulic Engineering. 2025;15(1):246–260. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/ 10.31774/2712-9357-2025-15-1-246-260.
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