The purpose of the research was to improve the estimation theory of the efficiency of technological processes introduction for planning water use and operational management of water consumption in existing farms and irrigation systems, as well as in the design of new land reclamation facilities based on scientifically valid indicators and criteria for assessing the efficiency of irrigation. The research has been carried out and the methodology for determining water demand for agrocenoses and implementing measures for the operational management of water supply for irrigation has been developed, increasing the water use efficiency by improving the calculation methods, procedures and models: irrigation water application efficiency, rhythm and stability of water distribution, and irrigation regimes and total water consumption of agrocenoses. The risk theory of the predicted efficiency of technological processes has been adapted to the practice of assessing the profitability of irrigation measures using the example of water management reclamation complex. The expediency of risk assessment of lost profit by the simulation modeling method, which provides the necessary and sufficient material for assessing the efficiency of the proposed measures to improve water distribution management, which increases reliability of the predicted economic efficiency, indicating the expediency of innovations is shown. The developed efficiency evaluation system of water use management in irrigation provides a sustainable economy of natural, energy and other resources. Water consumption due to the improvement of water distribution planning and management algorithms decreased by 375–400 cubic meters per hectare with an economic effect of 485 rubles per ha with a standard deviation of 68.85 rubles per ha and a variation coefficient of 0.1419. The risk of lost profit, estimated by the probability of negative values of the economic effect is classified as the minimum with a numerical value of order 0.473 %.
Key words: economic efficiency, technological process, water use, irrigation, risk, lost profit, method of simulation modeling, Monte Carlo method.
