Annotation

Purpose: system analysis of hydrological conditions in the lower reaches of the Volga River and the Volga-Caspian Seaway Canal. 

Materials and methods. The study is based on long-term data of water levels at the Olya gauge post (Bakhtemir arm) for the period 1956–2020, as well as data on the Caspian Sea level. The statistical analysis method of time series with the empirical probability curves construction was applied. The calculation of the probability of the highest and lowest water levels was carried out in accordance with the provisions of Sanitary Rules 529.1325800.2023 by constructing empirical probability curves. The analysis of surge phenomena was carried out on the basis of the recorded extreme level values. 

Results. Long-term and seasonal fluctuations in water levels under conditions of regulated flow of the Volga River were analyzed. The maximum, low, and average daily water levels for varying degrees of probability (from 1 to 99.9 %) were calculated. A quantitative assessment of surging and their impact on the canal's hydrodynamic regime was provided. The hydrological regime of the canal and the adjacent section of the lower Volga River is characterized by a high degree of runoff regulation and a significant influence of Caspian Sea level fluctuations, particularly surge phenomena. Analysis of water levels, discharges, and flow velocities reveals the complex dynamics of these parameters, which determines the conditions for sediment transport and accumulation. 

Conclusions. It has been determined that sedimentation of the Volga-Caspian Seaway Canal is a multifactorial process closely related to a decrease in the flow's transport capacity due to the absence of high natural flood peaks and the influence of sea backwater. The resulting calculated hydrological characteristics and probability curves form the necessary basis for designing dredging operations and improving the operational reliability of the canal.

doi: 10.31774/2712-9357-2026-16-3-370-390

For quoting

Klyuchenko K. I. Analysis of hydrological conditions in the lower reaches of the Volga River and the Volga-Caspian Seaway Canal. Land Reclamation and Hydraulic Engineering. 2026;16(3):370–390. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31774/2712-9357-2026-16-3-370-390.

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