PREDICTIVE STATISTICAL MODELS OF SURFACE MELT WATER RUNOFF ON A SLOPE IN THE AZOV ZONE ROSTOV REGION

Authors:Batishchev Ivan V., Ilyinskaya Isida N., Ignatev Victor M.

556.164
Theme: Land reclamation, water manadgement and agrophysics
Views: 484

Annotation

Purpose: to conduct a statistical analysis of the relationship between a number of natural factors and snow evaporation, melt water surface runoff during the snowmelt period on a slope with ordinary chernozem in Rostov region for various agricultural backgrounds (winter wheat and fallow) for the period 2008–2022.

Materials and methods. Methodological recommendations for accounting for surface runoff were used. Statistical data analysis was performed using the MathCAD and Statistica packages. The significance of regression equations was determined using the Fisher criterion.

Results. The use of statistical analysis to process the results of multifactorial studies made it possible to identify the influence of individual natural and anthropogenic factors on erosion processes and their interaction. It has been determined that the value of surface runoff on winter wheat crops depends most of all on the amount of precipitation (correlation coefficient r = 0.72...0.80), more with moldboard tillage, and on stubble plowing – on water reserves in snow (r = 0.40...0.45), also more with moldboard tillage.

Conclusions. The equations of the relationship between factorial and resultant indicators of various types are presented, allowing to increase the accuracy of forecasting the surface melt water runoff value in crop rotations depending on the influencing factors with different methods of primary soil tillage, within the limits of the obtained experimental data use, which makes it possible to use methods for regulating negative erosion processes timely. The obtained regularities, reflecting the influence of soil cultivation methods and agricultural background on the value of water balance elements during snowmelt, can be used to predict the melt water surface runoff value and application of anti-erosion agrotechnical measures.

doi: 10.31774/2712-9357-2024-14-4-193-211

Keywords

surface runoff, slope, melt water, snow evaporation, statistical models

For quoting

Batishchev I. V., Ilyinskaya I. N., Ignatev V. M. Predictive statistical models of surface melt water runoff on a slope in the Azov zone Rostov region. Land Reclamation and Hydraulic Engineering. 2024;14(4):193–211. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31774/2712-9357-2024-14-4-193-211.

Authors

I. V. Batishchev – Junior Researcher, Federal Rostov Agricultural Research Centre, Rassvet, Russian Federation, nerbat@ya.ru, AuthorID: 1047740, ORCID: 0009-0002-8743-6271;

I. N. Ilyinskaya – Chief Researcher, Doctor of Agricultural Sciences, Federal Rostov Agricultural Research Centre, Rassvet, Russian Federation, izidaar@mail.ru, AuthorID: 331396, ORCID: 0000-0002-7876-1622;

V. M. Ignatev – Candidate of Technical Sciences, Federal Rostov Agricultural Research Centre, Rassvet, Russian Federation, ivm-nvc@mail.ru, AuthorID: 677793, ORCID: 0000-0002-1795-9766.

Bibliography

1. Barabanov A.T., 2012. Zakonomernosti formirovaniya poverkhnostnogo sloya talykh vod, ego prognoz i regulirovanie [Patterns of formation of the surface melt water run-off, its forecast and regulation]. Izvestiya Orenburgskogo gosudarstvennogo agrarnogo universiteta [Bulletin of Orenburg State Agrarian University], no. 1(33), pp. 65-68, EDN: OYEEWB. (In Russian).

2. Petelko A.I., Panov V.I., 2014. Kharakteristika poverkhnostnogo stoka talykh vod s raznykh ugodiy za 50 let [Characteristics of surface melt water runoff from different lands over 50 years]. Vestnik APK Stavropol'ya [Bulletin of the AIC of Stavropol], no. 4(16), pp. 155-162, EDN: THKTAJ. (In Russian).

3. Poluektov E.V., Ignatyuk O.A., Balakay G.T., Balakay N.I., 2013. [Comprehensive studies of the state and soil protection measures in agricultural landscapes]. Nauchnyy zhurnal Rossiyskogo NII problem melioratsii, no. 4(12), pp. 67-80, available: https:rosniipm-sm.ru/article?n=657 [accessed 17.06.2024], EDN: RELQXD. (In Russian).

4. Ilyinskaya I.N., Poluektov E.V., Gaevaya E.A., Taradin S.A., Batishchev I.V., 2023. Osobennosti formirovaniya poverkhnostnogo stoka talykh vod na chernozemakh obyknovennykh [Features of the formation of surface snowmelt runoff on ordinary chernozems]. Zemledelie [Agriculture], no. 6, pp. 13-18, DOI: 10.24412/0044-3913-2023-6-13-18, EDN: TQMBVQ. (In Russian).

5. Barabanov A.T., 2020. Rol' snegozapasov v formirovanii poverkhnostnogo stoka talykh vod na sel'skokhozyaystvennykh zemlyakh lesostepnoy zony Russkoy ravniny [The role of snow reserves in the formation of surface runoff of melt water on agricultural lands of the forest-steppe zone of the Russian Plain]. Izvestiya Nizhnevolzhskogo agrouniversitetskogo kompleksa: nauka i vysshee professional'noe obrazovanie [Proceedings of the Lower Volga Agro-University Complex: Science and Higher Education], no. 3(59), pp. 34-45, DOI: 10.32786/2071-9485-2020-03-03, EDN: VRCPHS. (In Russian).

6. Barabanov A.T., 2021. Osobennosti formirovaniya sovremennogo vesennego sklonovogo stoka na pakhotnykh zemlyakh Nizhnego Povolzh'ya [Features of the formation of modern spring slope runoff on arable lands of the Lower Volga region]. Vestnik Moskovskogo universiteta. Seriya 5. Geografiya [Bulletin of Moscow University. Series 5. Geography], no. 6, pp. 77-86, EDN: VQBXBM. (In Russian).

7. Surmach G.P., Lomakin M.M., Shestakova A.P., 1989. Prognozirovanie stoka talykh vod [Forecasting melt water runoff]. Zemledelie [Agriculture], no. 4, pp. 29-31. (In Russian).

8. Barabanov A.T., Petelko A.I., 2018. Prognozirovanie poverkhnostnogo stoka talykh vod s sel'skokhozyaystvennykh ugodiy v lesostepnoy chasti basseyna Volgi [Forecasting of surface run-off of melt-water from agricultural lands in the forest-steppe part of the Volga basin]. Izvestiya Nizhnevolzhskogo agrouniversitetskogo kompleksa: nauka i vysshee professinal'noe obrazovanie [Proceedings of the Lower Volga Agro-University Complex: Science and Higher Education], no. 4(52), pp. 43-49, DOI: 10.32786/2071-9485-2018-04-5, EDN: YXTVUT. (In Russian).

9. Barabanov A.T., 2021. Nauchnye osnovy i metodika prognozirovaniya poverkhnostnogo stoka talykh vod na vodosborakh basseynov rek Volgi i Dona [Scientific Basis and Methodology for Forecasting Surface Runoff of Melt Water in the Volga and Don Basins]. Rev. and add. ed. Volgograd, Federal Scientific Center of Agroecology, Russian Academy of Sciences, 92 p., EDN: SWJOGO. (In Russian).

10. Barabanov A.T., Dolgov S.V., Koronkevich N.I., Panov V.I., Petelko A.I., 2018. Surface runoff and snowmelt infiltration into the soil on plowlands in the forest-steppe and steppe zones of the east European Plain. Eurasian Soil Science, vol. 51, no. 1, pp. 66-72, DOI: 10.1134/S1064229318010039, EDN: XXVMAH.

11. Barabanov A.T., 2017. Erozionno-gidrologicheskaya otsenka vzaimodeystviya prirodnykh i antropogennykh faktorov formirovaniya poverkhnostnogo stoka talykh vod i adaptivno-landshaftnoe zemledelie [Erosion-Hydrologic Assessment of Interaction of Natural and Anthropogenic Factors of Formation of Melt Water Surface Runoff and Adaptive Landscape Farming.]. Volgograd, FNC Agroecology RAS, 188 p., EDN: LMCWKN. (In Russian).

12. Demidov V.V., 2016. Zakonomernosti formirovaniya erozionnykh protsessov pri snegotayanii v lesostepnoy zone tsentral'noy Rossii: teoriya i eksperimental'nye issledovaniya: monografiya [Patterns of Formation of Erosion Processes During Snowmelt in the Forest-Steppe Zone of Central Russia: Theory and Experimental Studies: monograph]. Novosibirsk, Center for the Development of Scientific Cooperation, 62 p., EDN: VLTBCP. (In Russian).

13. Kalyuzhny I.L., Pavlova K.K., Lavrov S.A., 1984. Fizicheskoe modelirovanie protsessov migratsii vlagi pri promerzanii pochv [Physical modeling of moisture migration processes during soil freezing]. Meteorologiya i gidrologiya [Meteorology and Hydrology], no. 1, pp. 71-85. (In Russian).

14. Poluektov E.V., Balakay G.T., 2023. [Erosion processes during the meltwater runoff in the south of the European part of Russia]. Melioratsiya i gidrotekhnika, vol. 13, no. 1, pp. 1-18, available: https:rosniipm-sm.ru/article?n=1337 [accessed 17.06.2024], DOI: 10.31774/2712-9357-2023-13-1-1-18, EDN: CSYGMP. (In Russian).

15. Panfilov A.V., Proezdov P.N., Rozanov A.V., Karpushkin A.V., 2017. Modelirovanie protsessov protivoerozionnogo zemledeliya i agrolesomelioratsii [Modeling of processes of erosion control of agriculture and agroforestry]. Agrarnyy nauchnyy zhurnal [Agrarian Scientific Journal], no. 9, pp. 19-23, EDN: ZHTGKH. (In Russian).

16. Barabanov A.T., Panov V.I., 2012. K voprosu o prognoze poverkhnostnogo stoka talykh vod v lesostepnoy i stepnoy zonakh [On the issue of forecasting surface runoff of melt water in the forest-steppe and steppe zones]. Aridnye ekosistemy [Arid Ecosystems], vol. 18, no. 4(53), pp. 22-27, EDN: PONQRJ. (In Russian).

17. Barabanov A.T., 2020. Teoreticheskie osnovy protivoerozionnogo obustroystva sel'skokhozyaystvennykh zemel' [Theoretical bases of anti erosion development of agricultural lands]. Nauchnyy vestnik GOU LNR «Luganskiy natsional'nyy agrarnyy universitet» [Scientific Bulletin of the State Educational Institution of the LPR “Luhansk National Agrarian University”], no. 9, pp. 9-19. (In Russian).